The Pentagon’s ability to replenish its weapons stockpiles could face mounting pressure as shortages in critical mineral markets collide with China’s dominance over global supply chains. Industry experts warn that the United States’ heavy reliance on foreign sources for key defense materials is emerging as a strategic vulnerability amid escalating conflict with Iran.
Minerals such as tungsten, antimony, gallium, germanium, graphite, and yttrium are essential components of military hardware, from basic ammunition and hardened steel to semiconductors, missile systems, and high-temperature aerospace coatings. Any disruption in their supply could complicate efforts to sustain weapons production during a prolonged military engagement.“Stockpiles are dwindling,” said Peter Clausi, director of the Toronto-based Critical Minerals Institute, speaking on the sidelines of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada conference. “If the U.S. is running out of tungsten and antimony and it doesn’t have access to germanium and gallium supplies, it cannot build new weapons.”
The United States meets roughly 85% of its antimony consumption through imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and is nearly 100% dependent on imports for gallium. China is a dominant global producer of both minerals, as well as tungsten, germanium, graphite, rare earth elements and several other materials critical to military applications. Yttrium shortages have set off alarm bells in the aerospace sector. One of the 17 rare earth elements, yttrium, is used in specialized coatings that prevent aircraft engines and turbines from melting at high temperatures. Without the consistent application of these coatings, engines cannot safely operate.
While the precise state of U.S. military stockpiles remains classified, analysts say the risk of shortages will depend largely on the duration of the conflict. Whether China chooses to exert leverage over exports.“As usual, this story revolves around China’s export control restrictions,” said Chris Berry, founder of advisory firm House Mountain Partners. “In theory, there could be plenty of these metals available, but China may choose to restrict their export given that their use will strengthen an adversary.”
On March 2, Beijing issued a statement supporting Iran and calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the region, adding a geopolitical dimension to mineral market uncertainty. Compounding the challenge is the lack of transparent pricing in many critical mineral markets. According to Clausi, China’s dominant role in setting export prices for materials such as gallium and germanium makes it difficult to assess true market conditions or secure alternative supply.
In response, Washington has accelerated efforts to shore up domestic production. On February 24, the Department of Defense announced a $27 million investment aimed at strengthening U.S. antimony extraction, processing and refining capabilities. “For too long, DOD has depended on overseas sources for its critical mineral production,” said Assistant Secretary of War for Industrial Base Policy Mike Cadenazzi. “This investment will address risk in one of our most critical munitions and materials supply chains.”
Days later, the Pentagon asked members of the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC), a network of more than 1,500 companies, universities and defense suppliers, to submit proposals by March 20 for projects that could mine, process or recycle 13 specified minerals.
The list includes arsenic, bismuth, gadolinium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, nickel, samarium, tungsten, vanadium, ytterbium, yttrium and zirconium. The U.S. relies on imports for most of them, with China serving as a dominant global producer. Projects could receive development funding ranging from $100 million to more than $500 million. The Pentagon requested detailed cost breakdowns covering labor, materials and facility construction.
Several mining companies have already signaled their intent to apply. Guardian Metal Resources plans to seek funding for two tungsten projects in Nevada, while American Tungsten is preparing an application for its Idaho project. Energy Fuels is developing facilities to process gadolinium and samarium by 2027 and is considering yttrium production.“This is the opportunity we’ve been waiting for,” said J.T. Starzecki, executive chairman of Guardian Metal Resources.
The mineral request came just one day before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, though officials have not indicated whether the timing was coordinated. The latest initiative builds on a broader push by the Trump administration to reduce reliance on foreign mineral supplies. In recent weeks, officials launched a $12 billion minerals stockpile backed by the U.S. Export-Import Bank and proposed a preferential minerals trading bloc with more than 50 allies. The administration has also taken equity stakes in mining firms, including MP Materials, Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals.
Separately, the Defense Logistics Agency has sought information from miners regarding potential stockpiling of lithium, chromium and tellurium. China has increasingly used its market dominance as diplomatic leverage in trade disputes with Washington. Some of the minerals targeted by the Pentagon, including germanium, graphite, and yttrium, have already been subject to Chinese export restrictions. Nickel presents another vulnerability. Although widely traded and primarily produced by Indonesia, Jakarta has throttled exports of the metal used in stainless steel and battery manufacturing, demonstrating how supply risk extends beyond China alone.
President Donald Trump said on March 3 that the U.S. has “plenty of ammunition,” and defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and RTX, are expected to meet with White House officials to discuss accelerating weapons production.
Still, industry analysts caution that ammunition stockpiles alone do not address longer-term supply chain fragility. The ability to sustain weapons manufacturing during a protracted conflict hinges not only on factory capacity, but on secure access to the obscure yet indispensable minerals embedded in modern defense systems. If supply disruptions intensify or export controls tighten, the U.S. could face a difficult reality: military strength increasingly depends not just on battlefield capabilities, but on control of the global mineral supply chain.