Gold and silver prices moved lower near midday Thursday, with silver once again leading the decline as traders booked profits following a strong rally that established new near-term uptrends in both metals.
April gold futures were last down $25.20 at $5,191.30, while March silver dropped $4.238 to $86.81. The pullback comes amid firmer outside markets, including a stronger U.S. dollar index. Crude oil prices were trading higher near $66.50 per barrel, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hovered around 4.05%.
Silver’s recent volatility follows a parabolic run earlier this year that pushed prices to all-time highs in January. Since then, the metal has entered what market participants describe as a consolidation phase.
According to Nate Miller, Vice President of Product Development at Amplify ETFs, the current weakness appears to reflect short-term profit-taking rather than a breakdown in sentiment.“From the phones, we’re not hearing panic,” Miller said in an interview with Kitco News. While investor flows have moderated somewhat, he noted there has been no meaningful deterioration in retail sentiment.
Miller added that seasoned silver investors understand the metal’s trading personality. “It may not be the first metal to leave the station during a rally, but it’s the fastest to arrive,” he said, referencing January’s sharp surge. During last month’s decline, Amplify saw buyers step in early as the move lower began. Although the $70 range has generated more two-way trading activity, overall flows remain positive year to date.
From a structural standpoint, Miller argues that silver’s bull case remains intact, supported by what he calls a “two-pronged” dynamic: persistent industrial demand amid structural supply constraints, and ongoing investment demand tied to safe-haven flows and global de-dollarization trends.
However, he believes the market may be building a new base rather than preparing for another immediate breakout.“It does feel like there’s probably a new floor call it the $70 to $80 range and we’re in a consolidation period,” he said. Even so, silver has shown renewed strength in spot trading, recently changing hands at $90.46 per ounce, up nearly 4% on the day, as geopolitical uncertainty boosts demand for real assets.
Miller expects the consolidation phase to cool speculative excess and allow for price discovery. Options market positioning remains skewed toward calls, suggesting investors are still preparing for another upside move. “There’s probably another leg higher at some point,” he said.
Major institutions are also maintaining a constructive outlook. Deutsche Bank reiterated its bullish stance on silver this week, citing strengthening relative performance among white metals and robust investor positioning. Analyst Michael Hsueh noted that silver has resumed outperforming gold, defying the typical historical pattern of sharp outperformance followed by a partial retracement. The gold-silver ratio has fallen to 57, below the bank’s longer-term assumption range of 60–65 for 2026 and 2027.
Sentiment indicators remain strong. Hsueh highlighted that the silver three-month risk reversal has climbed to its highest level of the year and, in fact, to a new 20-year high, signaling elevated demand for upside exposure. He also pointed to renewed Shanghai M1-M2 backwardation in silver after the Lunar New Year holiday, with levels still above those seen in January. Taken together, these factors present upside risk to Deutsche Bank’s year-end forecast of $100 per ounce, based on a gold-silver ratio of 60.
Beyond silver, Deutsche Bank also sees room for further gains in gold. The bank noted that gold has recently crossed back into outperformance versus the U.S. dollar based on its trailing 60-day beta, a shift it views as constructive.
While the bank’s base-case forecast for gold stands at $6,000 per ounce, Hsueh said that a return to the degree of outperformance seen in the past two years could support prices as high as $6,900.
Looking ahead, both metals’ next major move may hinge on Federal Reserve policy. While earlier expectations leaned dovish, resilient economic data have prompted some Fed officials to signal that rate hikes remain possible.
Miller anticipates a period of policy “hemming and hawing” that could keep precious metals range-bound through the summer. If another breakout occurs, he expects it to materialize in the latter half of the year. For now, despite Thursday’s midday pullback, the broader narrative remains one of consolidation within a powerful bull market, with analysts increasingly eyeing triple-digit silver before year-end.