Gold is increasingly emerging as one of the clearest beneficiaries of a more divided global order. As geopolitical tensions deepen, trust in traditional reserve assets weakens, and more countries seek protection from sanctions and financial dependence on the United States, central banks are steadily shifting toward gold and away from the U.S. dollar.
That is the core message from Deutsche Bank, which argues that gold still has significant room to rise as nations, especially in emerging markets, rebuild their reserve strategies around counterparty-risk-free assets. In this view, gold is no longer simply a crisis hedge or inflation play. It is becoming a strategic monetary asset in an era of de-dollarization.
In a note published Monday, Deutsche Bank said central banks have added more than 225 million ounces of gold to their reserves since the 2008 global financial crisis. Over the same period, the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped sharply from more than 60% in the early 2000s to around 40% today.
At the same time, gold’s share of global central bank reserves has climbed from roughly 10% in the 1990s to about 30% today. Deutsche Bank strategist Mallika Sachdeva described the narrowing gap between the two as “extremely noteworthy,” noting that the difference between the dollar and gold in reserve share is now just 10 percentage points. This marks a dramatic reversal of the 1990s, when central banks reduced their gold allocations in favor of dollar assets. Today, that trend is moving in the opposite direction.
The rationale is increasingly geopolitical as much as financial. Deutsche Bank sees central banks, particularly in emerging economies, accumulating gold as a safety net against Western sanctions and to reduce exposure to the global dollar-based financial system.
The biggest buyers remain countries such as China, Russia, India, and Turkey. But the trend is broadening. Deutsche Bank points to growing purchases from Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, underscoring that this is no longer a narrow or isolated shift. According to an IMF-based analysis cited by the bank, all net central bank gold purchases since the global financial crisis have come from emerging-market central banks. This suggests the de-dollarization story is being driven primarily by nations looking to diversify reserves and increase financial sovereignty. A World Gold Council survey last year reinforced the point: central banks cited economic and geopolitical uncertainty as a key reason for continuing to accumulate gold.
Sachdeva acknowledged that about 80% of the rise in gold’s share of central bank reserves has been driven by higher gold prices rather than purchases alone. But she also emphasized that this does not diminish the role of central banks. In fact, their buying often helps push prices higher, creating what she described as an “endogenous link” between purchases and prices.
That mechanism has been visible in recent years. Since 2022, investors have repeatedly turned to gold as a haven first amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and later as the conflict in the Middle East intensified, including U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Geopolitical shocks have helped sustain demand, while official-sector buying has given the market a powerful structural foundation.
Deutsche Bank believes the next major move in gold will depend in part on how far emerging market central banks are willing to go in increasing their gold allocations.
Its analysis suggests that if gold’s share of global central bank reserves rises to 40% from around 30% today, bullion prices could climb to $8,000 per ounce within five years. Even if total foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets fall to $5 trillion, Deutsche Bank says a 40% gold allocation could still support that price level.
That would represent roughly a 70% to 80% increase from current levels, depending on the starting point used. The bank has framed this as a conceptual scenario rather than an official base-case forecast. Still, it aligns with a broader industry view that gold may be one of the biggest winners from the erosion of confidence in fiat reserve systems and the gradual retreat from dollar dominance.
Gold’s appeal is strengthened by a simple market reality: supply growth remains limited. Annual mine output typically rises by only about 1% to 2%, while central bank purchases have consistently exceeded 1,000 tonnes a year. That creates a favorable backdrop in which sustained official-sector demand can have an outsized impact on prices.
This structural demand story has helped gold reach repeated record highs. At the end of January 2026, gold hit a new all-time high as safe-haven demand and central bank accumulation intensified. Although prices then suffered a sharp 20% correction after President Trump nominated the hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts, gold quickly rebounded from around $4,400 to above $5,200 by late February.
That resilience highlights the current nature of the market. Gold is not rising solely due to short-term fear or speculation. It is being supported by a deeper reallocation of reserves and portfolios worldwide.
Gold has always occupied a unique place in the global financial system. It served as the backbone of monetary regimes for centuries, from the classical gold standard to the Bretton Woods system, under which the U.S. dollar was backed by gold at $35 per ounce. When the Nixon administration ended dollar convertibility in 1971, gold began trading freely and evolved into both a monetary hedge and a market-driven asset.
Its historical peaks have often coincided with periods of inflation, war, or systemic stress: the 1980 surge during the Iranian Revolution, the post-2008 financial crisis rally, and the breakout above $2,000 in 2020 during the pandemic era.
But the current cycle may be different. Rather than being driven solely by inflation fears or falling interest rates, gold is increasingly being revalued because of a structural change in the international monetary order.
Deutsche Bank is far from alone in expecting higher prices. Forecasts for 2026 from major institutions now range broadly from $5,400 to $6,300 per ounce. Deutsche Bank, Yardeni Research, and Peter Schiff all point to the $6,000 level, while J.P. Morgan sees $6,300 and UBS forecasts $5,900. Goldman Sachs expects around $5,400, citing de-dollarization and private-sector diversification.
Looking further ahead, the bullish case remains intact. For 2027, forecasts range from $5,150 to $8,000. By 2030, estimates range from $6,200 to more than $10,000, depending on assumptions about reserve diversification, inflation, household demand, and long-term confidence in fiat currencies. While these projections vary, they share a common thesis: gold is being repriced not just because of cyclical market conditions, but because of bigger changes in how countries and investors think about reserve assets.
Gold remains a non-yielding asset, and interest rates, inflation, the dollar, and investor sentiment influence its valuation. But its renewed importance goes beyond those familiar drivers. In an increasingly fragmented world, gold offers something few financial assets can: neutrality.
It cannot be printed, frozen, or directly tied to the policy decisions of any single nation. That makes it especially attractive at a time when reserve managers are placing greater emphasis on resilience, independence, and protection from geopolitical risk. If the global move away from the dollar continues and emerging market central banks keep increasing gold’s share in their reserves, Deutsche Bank’s analysis suggests the metal’s bull market may still be in its early stages. In that sense, gold’s rise is not just about price. It reflects a changing world, one in which trust is more fragile, alliances are less stable, and the definition of a safe reserve asset is being rewritten.