Gold and silver extended their powerful rallies on Wednesday, climbing back toward record highs reached just weeks ago, even as U.S. interest-rate expectations shifted more hawkishly. Spot gold in London touched $5,200 per troy ounce, marking a 2.7% gain for the week, while April futures traded as high as $5,214.50. Silver surged above $90 per ounce, hitting a three-week high near $90.50 and leading the precious metals complex higher. Though still more than 25% below its late-January spike, silver’s renewed strength underscores a market that remains structurally bullish despite bouts of volatility.
The rally comes even as traders dial back expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. Following hawkish commentary from three regional Fed presidents, interest-rate markets have pushed expectations for the next cut from June to July. The CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders no longer expect the June meeting to deliver a lower policy rate than today. The last time rate markets held that view was in late July of last year, when gold was trading nearly $2,000 per ounce below current levels.
That period preceded the so-called “Friday chaos” of August 1, when President Trump unveiled the steepest import tariffs since the Great Depression and unexpectedly weak U.S. jobs data sent rate-cut expectations soaring, igniting another leg of the precious metals rally. Across 2025, gold prices moved in the same direction as June rate-cut odds 60% of the time on a five-session basis, underscoring how closely the metal tracked monetary policy expectations. So far in 2026, that relationship has weakened significantly, falling to just 35.1%. The divergence suggests that other forces, geopolitical risk, trade tensions, and structural demand are playing a larger role in driving prices.
Recent remarks from Fed officials have reinforced a cautious stance on policy easing. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee warned that progress on inflation has stalled. “With inflation at 3%,” he noted, compared with the Fed’s 2% target, “that is not good enough.”Boston Fed President Susan Collins said rates are likely to remain unchanged “for some time,” citing labor-market stability and persistent inflation risks. After 175 basis points of easing over the past 18 months, she described the current 3.50%–3.75% range as “mildly restrictive, perhaps quite close to neutral already.”Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin agreed that policy is “well positioned,” reinforcing the market’s perception that the Fed is in no rush to cut.
Those hawkish signals have somewhat limited gold’s upside on the day. Still, the metal’s resilience amid firmer rate expectations highlights the depth of underlying demand. Safe-haven flows continue to support both gold and silver amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty. In his State of the Union address, President Trump reaffirmed that sweeping tariffs would remain in place despite a Supreme Court ruling overturning last year’s “emergency” import duties. He pledged to maintain the measures under alternative legal frameworks.“We’re not going to see tariff relief in the longer run, and businesses know that,” said Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Meanwhile, shifting global energy flows are adding to market unease. Russia and Iran are offering deep discounts to sell crude to China after India scaled back purchases of Russian oil. Russian Urals crude is reportedly trading at $12 below Brent, while Iranian Light is discounted by as much as $11. With China’s independent refiners facing capacity and quota constraints, excess supply is building in Asian waters, another sign of strain in global trade dynamics.
Against that backdrop, precious metals are benefiting from both safe-haven flows and longer-term de-dollarization trends.
Silver, in particular, is regaining momentum after a parabolic surge earlier this year followed by a sharp correction. Nate Miller, Vice President of Product Development at Amplify ETFs, describes the current phase as consolidation rather than reversal. Retail investors, he says, are not panicking.“From the phones, we’re not hearing it,” Miller said, noting that while flows have slowed, overall sentiment remains constructive. During last month’s pullback, buyers stepped in on the first leg lower. Silver’s tendency to lag early in rallies but then accelerate sharply remains intact. “It may not be the first metal to leave the station during a rally, but it’s the fastest to arrive,” Miller said, pointing to January’s record-breaking spike. He sees a likely new trading floor in the $70–$80 range and characterizes the current period as price discovery and cooling speculative excess. Importantly, open interest in options markets remains skewed toward calls, suggesting investors are still positioning for another upside breakout.
Structurally, silver benefits from what Miller calls a “two-pronged” support base: a persistent supply deficit tied to industrial demand, particularly in energy transition technologies and continued investment demand driven by safe-haven buying and de-dollarization themes. While he expects markets to remain range-bound through the summer amid policy uncertainty, Miller believes “there’s probably another leg higher at some point,” potentially in the second half of the year.
Technically, both metals have improved their near-term posture, drawing momentum and chart-based traders back to the long side. On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index traded mixed, while crude oil hovered around $65 per barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note held near 4.05%, a level that, in previous cycles, might have posed a stronger headwind for non-yielding assets like gold. Yet the current environment appears different. The weakening correlation between rate expectations and gold prices suggests that monetary policy is no longer the sole or even primary driver.
Gold trading above $5,200 and silver reclaiming $90 per ounce reflect more than speculative fervor. They signal a market recalibrating to a world of persistent inflation pressures, trade fragmentation, geopolitical risk, and evolving central bank dynamics.
Even as the Federal Reserve signals patience and interest-rate cuts are pushed further out, precious metals continue to find buyers. In 2026, the story is no longer just about the Fed. It is about structural demand, policy uncertainty, and a global financial system increasingly defined by volatility. If current trends hold, the consolidation now underway, particularly in silver, may prove to be a pause before the next decisive move higher.