The gold market is showing renewed resilience, with prices holding above the $4,700-an-ounce level even as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and shifting geopolitical sentiment complicate the outlook for precious metals. Spot gold was recently trading near $4,722 an ounce, extending weekly gains and stabilizing after two weeks of losses. The move is notable because it has come despite a U.S. labor market report that would normally be seen as a headwind for bullion. At the same time, silver has also regained momentum, rising sharply alongside gold as investors reassess the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict, interest-rate expectations, and longer-term structural demand.
The latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above economists’ expectations of roughly 65,000. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hiring was led by health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade, while federal government employment continued to decline. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, matching forecasts, while wage growth came in softer than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, or 6 cents, to $37.41, below consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. Every year, wages were up 3.6%.
Ordinarily, stronger employment data would pressure gold because it gives the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to keep monetary policy tight and focus on inflation. That dynamic remains in place. A relatively healthy labor market reduces the urgency for rate cuts and, in theory, supports higher real yields and the U.S. dollar, both of which are traditionally negative for non-yielding assets such as gold. Even so, gold rose in the immediate aftermath of the report, suggesting investors remain focused on broader uncertainty rather than on any single data point.
While April’s payroll gain beat expectations, the broader trend still points to moderation. March payrolls were revised up to 185,000 from 178,000, but February’s figure was revised to 156,000. The three-month moving average now sits at 48,000, indicating a labor market that is slowing even if it has not yet cracked.
Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, said the report reinforces the view that the U.S. economy continues to outperform pessimistic forecasts.“There are a lot of headwinds, higher oil prices, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates and yet the labor market is adding jobs, GDP is growing, and corporate profits are expanding at a rapid pace,” he said. That resilience matters for gold because it supports the argument that the Fed can remain cautious. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 14% chance of a rate hike by year-end, up from 9% a week earlier and less than 1% a month ago. Those odds remain low, but the shift underscores how markets are reassessing the risk that inflation stays elevated for longer.
Analysts had warned before the jobs report that strong payroll growth would likely be bearish for gold. Instead, the metal held firm, suggesting underlying support remains strong. Part of that support may reflect the market’s view that inflation pressures are increasingly supply-driven. If so, rate hikes may do little to solve the problem and could instead risk slowing the economy too sharply. That leaves gold in a more nuanced position: vulnerable to higher-rate expectations in the short term, but still supported by concerns over growth, policy credibility, and persistent inflation.
Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. Analysts say core inflation will be especially important in determining whether price pressures are becoming entrenched across the broader economy. Markets are also watching a potential U.S. Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh has supported cutting rates this year to stimulate growth, but he has also argued for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, a move that could drain liquidity from markets. That mixed stance has created further uncertainty around the policy outlook.
Another important driver of precious metals has been the evolving U.S.-Iran conflict. Gold and silver initially benefited from safe-haven demand after the outbreak of war on Feb. 28, but trading has since become more volatile. In recent sessions, hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal have helped lift both metals again, with spot gold rising as high as $4,750 and spot silver climbing toward $80 an ounce. Market watchers say the prospect of a peace agreement could paradoxically be bullish for precious metals after their recent correction. Ross Norman, CEO of Metals Daily, noted that gold had entered the conflict significantly overbought, creating an opening for profit-taking as traders sold their best-performing asset.
Since then, higher rate expectations, a firmer U.S. dollar driven by energy-related flows, and broad position unwinding have all weighed on gold. But as peace hopes improve, some of those pressures appear to be easing.“The dollar and gold both rallied, the former seeing hot money flows as energy supplies choked, while the dollar gained on safe haven flows,” Norman said. “A peace deal would suggest those tailwinds ease off and we are seeing that just now. It’s as if the handbrake has been released from gold and silver.”
The conflict has also tested gold’s reputation as a classic safe-haven asset. During the worst of the market turmoil, gold did perform its defensive role, helping investors offset losses elsewhere. Francis Tan, chief Asia strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, described that function as especially valuable during March’s selloff.“If you look at March, when equities were selling, for an investor with some allocation in gold during that period, you were sitting on pretty strong returns in gold, and you could perhaps take some off the table to cover some of your equity losses,” he said. “So gold as a safe haven certainly has played its part.”
But this episode also showed that gold does not move in isolation. During the conflict, it often traded inversely to oil and the dollar, while also reacting to interest-rate expectations and broader investor positioning. That has made the current environment more complicated than a simple geopolitical-risk trade.
Silver has outperformed gold in several recent sessions and remains one of the more closely watched parts of the precious metals complex. After surging 135% in 2025, silver has been volatile in 2026, including suffering its largest single-day decline since the 1980s at the end of January. Yet many analysts remain constructive because of the metal’s industrial demand profile. Paul Williams, managing director of Solomon Global, said silver continues to be supported by tight physical supply and strong demand from green technologies and artificial intelligence-linked industries.
“Supply of physical silver remains tight, while strong demand from green technologies continues,” he said. “The U.S.-Iran conflict has only underscored the strategic case for solar power. AI-related demand remains significant and is growing, adding further pressure to an already stretched supply/demand balance.”
He added that if a peace deal is reached, silver could benefit from improved economic sentiment, stronger industrial demand and greater investor risk appetite. If talks fail, gold would likely lead the initial safe-haven move, but silver could quickly catch up because of its tight physical market.
Despite this year’s volatility, several market strategists argue that the long-term bullish case for gold and silver remains intact. Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, described the recent declines as a consolidation rather than the end of the rally. He said the same force has pressured both precious metals and equities: fears that inflation will keep interest rates higher for longer.
“In our world interest rates are like gravity,” Gijsels said. “When interest rates rise, gravity increases and all assets are pulled down, including precious metals.”Still, he expects the broader uptrend to resume.“We expect the secular bull market in gold and silver to resume and the metals to reach new all-time highs in the not too distant future, potentially this year,” he said.
According to Gijsels, the key long-term drivers remain in place: structurally higher inflation, persistent demand for real assets, and continued diversification by central banks and governments away from U.S. Treasurys and into gold.“The decline in gold and silver prices in recent months is not the end, but merely a pause in what will live up to be the strongest and longest bull market in gold and silver in history,” he said.
Gold’s ability to hold above $4,700 despite robust payroll growth suggests there is still strong underlying demand. Whether that support turns into a renewed breakout may depend on the next round of inflation data, the path of Fed expectations, and whether optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal can hold. For now, investors appear willing to buy dips, but they are still waiting for a clear catalyst before betting on the next major leg higher.