Gold prices moved higher on Thursday morning, reclaiming the $4,100 level after fresh U.S. labor market data showed fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits than economists expected. The move came as traders reversed part of Wednesday's sell-off, while persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, firm crude oil prices, elevated Treasury yields, and a steady U.S. dollar kept markets on edge.
Spot gold rose to a session high of $4,120.16 per ounce shortly before 8:30 a.m. ET release of the jobless claims data. It was last trading near $4,112.10, up 0.86% on the day. Spot silver also strengthened, trading around $59.39 per ounce, up 1.80% for the session. Gold's early trading range ran from $4,053.60 to $4,121.00, placing the metal back above the psychologically important $4,100 area. However, prices remained below the key resistance zone between $4,162 and $4,214, which has capped the latest rebound. Silver traded between $57.47 and $59.60, stabilizing after Wednesday's decline but remaining below the $60.00-$62.80 resistance.
The Labor Department reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ending July 4. That was below consensus expectations of 218,000 and also under broader market estimates that had ranged near 220,000 to 225,000. The prior week's reading was revised up to 217,000 from 215,000.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility and is often viewed as a more reliable gauge of labor market trends, came in at 218,750, below expectations for 220,000. Continuing claims, which measure the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits, stood at 1.814 million for the week ending June 27. That was slightly below expectations of 1.820 million and followed the previous week's downwardly revised level of 1.806 million.
The data suggest that layoffs remain contained. However, when viewed alongside last week's June employment report, the broader picture still points to a labor market that is cooling through slower hiring rather than a sharp rise in job losses. June payrolls increased by only 57,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. April and May payrolls were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs. That softer labor momentum initially supported gold by reducing confidence that the Federal Reserve would move aggressively toward another near-term rate hike. Still, the latest jobless claims numbers were not weak enough to fully shift expectations toward a more dovish Fed outlook.
Gold's upside remains limited by the interest-rate backdrop. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting shifted market attention back toward inflation risks, showing officials divided on the path of rates. Nine of 18 policymakers saw at least one rate hike by December. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an elevated probability that the Fed will deliver at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end. That expectation has helped keep Treasury yields firm, creating a headwind for gold, which pays no interest. The 10-year Treasury yield was recently near 4.579%, slightly below Wednesday's seven-week high of 4.597%. The policy-sensitive two-year yield was near 4.189% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 100.96, indicating that the dollar has retained much of its post-Fed minutes strength. This leaves gold caught between competing forces: softer labor data and geopolitical risk are supporting safe-haven demand, while sticky yields and a resilient dollar are capping the metal's advance.
Geopolitical tensions also remain a key driver for precious metals. The U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about a broader escalation in the region. Iran reportedly responded by targeting U.S.-allied Kuwait and Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz situation is best described as open transit under active military and shipping risk, rather than a confirmed chokepoint closure. Still, the threat to one of the world's most important energy shipping routes has injected a geopolitical risk premium into markets.
Crude oil prices remain firm as a result. Brent crude traded near $78.66 after briefly topping $80 on Wednesday, while WTI traded around $74.06. For gold, the impact is mixed. On one hand, geopolitical uncertainty tends to support safe-haven buying. On the other hand, higher oil prices revive inflation concerns, which can push bond yields higher and limit demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. Across broader markets, the current trade remains consistent: oil is bid, bonds are under pressure, equities are mixed, and the dollar is steady.
Gold's reclaiming of $4,100 reflects a market balancing softer labor momentum, geopolitical uncertainty, and cautious rebuilding after Wednesday's selloff. However, the metal still faces major obstacles from firm Treasury yields, a steady dollar, and renewed inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices.
For now, gold appears supported on dips by safe-haven demand and signs of a cooling U.S. labor market. Still, a sustained breakout above the $4,162-$4,214 resistance area may be needed before traders regain confidence in a stronger bullish reversal.
