Gold and silver surged to multi-week highs Monday as investors rushed back into safe-haven assets amid renewed turmoil over U.S. trade policy, a deteriorating fiscal outlook, and mounting geopolitical tensions. The rally follows a dramatic turn late Friday, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping import tariffs. The decision has injected fresh uncertainty into global trade just as markets were grappling with slowing U.S. growth, sticky inflation, and rising tensions in the Middle East.
Spot gold climbed as much as 1.3% in early trading to $5,176 per ounce, its highest level in three weeks and not far from January’s all-time peak before easing slightly. April gold futures were last up $89.30 at $5,170.00.
Silver outperformed, jumping nearly 4% to a two-week high of $87.84 per ounce. March silver futures were recently up $4.04 at $86.345, after trading in a wide intraday range between roughly $84.39 and $87.87.The gains came as global stock markets slipped and volatility spiked across currencies and rates. The U.S. dollar index was slightly lower, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.07%. Analysts said the move reflects renewed safe-haven demand as traders assess the fallout from the Court’s ruling and President Trump’s rapid response.
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs was illegal, striking at the heart of his 2025 trade agenda, which Yale University research estimated had produced an effective average tariff rate of 16.9%.
Trump sharply criticized the ruling as a “ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision” and moved swiftly to preserve his trade framework. Over the weekend, he announced a temporary increase in the global baseline tariff from 10% to 15%, effective immediately, though exemptions for many goods under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement remain in place.
The administration’s efforts are expected to face fresh legal challenges. Trump is also set to defend his trade agenda before lawmakers during his State of the Union address on Tuesday. The ruling has thrown global trade negotiations into uncertainty. While U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said previously negotiated deals with China, the European Union, and South Korea remain in place, foreign officials reacted cautiously.
Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s trade committee, described the situation as “pure customs chaos,” suggesting the EU may suspend ratification of the so-called Turnberry Agreement struck last summer. India has postponed trade talks with Washington, and analysts say China’s bargaining position has strengthened. A Bloomberg headline over the weekend captured the mood: “Trump’s Treasured Negotiating Edge Dulled by Tariff Defeat.”
Beyond trade, markets are increasingly focused on the fiscal consequences. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that the Court’s decision could leave the country “about $2 trillion deeper in the hole,” calling the U.S. fiscal situation “dismal.”
Although the federal deficit for fiscal 2026 stood at $600 billion through January, about 20% lower year-on-year, thanks partly to tariff revenues, the Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates that more than $175 billion in Treasury revenue could now be subject to refunds.
Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS Pamp, said the combination of renewed tariff uncertainty and the negative fiscal impact of the administration’s “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” is constructive for gold.“Tariff uncertainty returns, and the USA’s fiscal trajectory gets messier and uglier,” Shiels said. The loss of “meaningful tariff revenue” removes an important offset to fiscal expansion, a dynamic she views as positive for gold over the medium- to long-term.
The trade turmoil comes against a fragile economic backdrop. Data released Friday showed U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply to a 1.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2025. At the same time, core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, re-accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year.
Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rate strategy at RBC Capital Markets, noted that while the tariff ruling could ease some inflation concerns and give the Fed more flexibility to cut rates, markets appear more focused on deficit implications and corporate relief from tariff burdens.
Interest-rate expectations remain central for precious metals. Lower rates and a weaker dollar typically support gold and silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Compounding trade and fiscal concerns are rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The two sides are set to resume nuclear negotiations in Geneva this week amid a visible U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he sees a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution but insisted Tehran will not be pressured.
Concerns over potential conflict, particularly risks to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have supported energy prices. Brent crude recently traded near multi-month highs, while additional supply disruptions in Eastern Europe added to uncertainty. Heightened geopolitical risk has reinforced safe-haven flows into precious metals, particularly silver, which benefits both from defensive demand and its role in industrial and defense applications.
From a technical standpoint, gold futures bulls are targeting a close above the major $5,400 resistance level. Initial resistance lies near $5,198.80 and $5,250. Support is seen around $5,120 and $5,100. Wyckoff’s Market Rating stands at 7.0, indicating a solid near-term technical advantage for bulls.
Silver bulls are eyeing a move above $90.00, with first resistance near $88.00. Key support sits at $84.56 and then $83.00. Wyckoff’s rating of 6.0 suggests a moderate bullish bias. Analysts say holding above the mid-$80s will be crucial to sustaining silver’s momentum; a break back below $84 could signal a return to volatile, range-bound trading.
After a brief pullback earlier this month, precious metals have stabilized, reinforcing what many investors see as a longer-term supply-demand imbalance. Central bank gold buying remains strong, and limited mine supply continues to underpin prices. Silver shares a similar supply story but also benefits from robust industrial demand.
Mining equities are increasingly seen as leveraged plays on the next leg higher. Companies such as Kinross Gold, Hecla Mining, and Pan American Silver recently posted strong earnings, improved balance sheets, and rising free cash flow.
Kinross reported nearly tripled year-on-year net earnings in Q4 2025 and moved into a net cash position. Hecla delivered record revenue and EBITDA as silver production hit the high end of guidance. Pan American posted record quarterly earnings and guided for double-digit growth in silver production in 2026. Many analysts argue that if gold ultimately trends toward $10,000 per ounce by decade’s end, as some forecasts suggest, the current rally may represent only the early stages of a multi-year cycle.
For now, markets remain headline-driven. Trade policy reversals, legal challenges, fiscal concerns, and Middle East developments are combining to create what one European official called “growing uncertainty” for U.S. trading partners.
In that environment, gold and silver appear to be regaining their traditional role as financial shock absorbers. Whether the latest surge develops into a sustained breakout may depend on interest rates and the dollar. But with fiscal risks mounting, geopolitical tensions simmering, and trade policy in flux, the broader backdrop continues to favor precious metals at least for now.