After last Friday’s historic crash to $4,400 per ounce, its sharpest single-day drop since 1983, gold prices surged nearly 7% on Tuesday and climbed another 2.66% on Wednesday, reclaiming the $5,000 level and closing at $5,078. This two-day rally marks one of the strongest 48-hour performance streaks for gold in nearly two decades, reigniting bullish sentiment just days after many feared the rally had collapsed.
The recent dramatic rebound of gold has not only alleviated the panic that swept through the markets but has also instilled confidence among Wall Street’s most optimistic gold proponents. Following a historic sell-off that saw gold plummet to $4,400, the price has surged back to $5,078. Analysts at JPMorgan now project that by the end of 2026, gold could reach as high as $6,300, while Deutsche Bank considers a price of $6,000 “achievable” despite recent volatility.
Several factors are driving these bullish forecasts. Central bank demand for gold is expected to reach 800 tons in 2026, reflecting a significant rotation from equities to hard assets amid rising geopolitical tensions. This shift highlights an increasing appetite for safe-haven investments. Additionally, the $5,000 level has emerged as a crucial battleground, serving as a key support level for both bullish and bearish investors.
Gold’s price action has left traders and investors spinning. On January 28, the yellow metal hit a record intraday high of $5,608. But by Friday, just hours after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, igniting fears of a more hawkish monetary policy, gold plummeted to $4,400 in one of the swiftest reversals on record. Yet technical levels held particularly support around the 50-day exponential moving average at $4,550, which coincided with prior December highs. Dip-buyers pounced. Now that the psychological $5,000 level has been decisively reclaimed, technical analysts and institutions alike believe the path is clear for a strong move higher.
Following the rebound, JPMorgan reiterated and expanded its bullish outlook, calling for gold to hit $6,300 per ounce by Q4 2026, a 24% upside from current levels. Gregory Shearer, head of precious metals strategy at JPMorgan, wrote in a note to clients: “Even with recent volatility, we remain bullish on gold over the medium term. There’s a structural trend toward diversification into real assets that will continue driving performance.”
One of JPMorgan’s primary drivers for this view is expected central bank demand. The bank predicts global central banks will buy 800 tons of gold this year, equivalent to roughly 26% of annual mine output, creating a persistent imbalance between supply and demand. Shearer sees this dynamic generating a “relentless appetite” for gold, one that private investors can no longer afford to overlook.
Gold’s current price of $5,078 sits nearly 10% below its all-time high but remains well above recent lows. If the technical support at $5,000 continues to hold as it has over the past two sessions, the next leg higher toward $5,400 and beyond could be underway.
From the perspective of JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and others, structural demand factors far outweigh short-term volatility concerns. With central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainty intertwined, gold is widely viewed as an essential portfolio hedge rather than a speculative asset.
Despite severe short-term shocks, the medium- and long-term outlook for gold remains overwhelmingly bullish among institutional analysts. As Gregory Shearer of JPMorgan puts it: “Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge… We continue to have the greatest conviction in our bullish view from here.” With geopolitical tensions escalating, stock market volatility rising, and central banks on a gold-buying spree, institutional smart money is betting that $6,300 gold by year-end 2026 isn’t only possible, but it may be just the beginning.