Amid intensifying US-China trade tensions and surging fears over tariffs on critical minerals, precious metals are experiencing an explosive rally. Gold reached a new all-time high, silver pushed towards historic levels, and platinum and palladium broke through multi-year resistances, marking a radical resurgence for the long-overlooked commodities sector.
In a year defined by geopolitical uncertainty, fears over Federal Reserve independence, and the escalating global energy transition, metals have reasserted themselves as indispensable and highly attractive investments. Market volatility has pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, triggering strong fund inflows and fueling a run that may just be getting started.
Gold extended its bull run with an 8th consecutive weekly gain, recently topping $4,060 per ounce for the first time in history, as investors sought refuge from mounting macroeconomic instability. Central bank buying, combined with significant allocations to exchange-traded funds, has underscored the growing institutional consensus that gold remains the ultimate hedge against economic turbulence.
Silver, meanwhile, climbed as high as $51 an ounce just shy of its all-time high of $52.50 set back in 1980. Concerns over liquidity in London's market and increasing arbitrage opportunities over New York prices have even prompted transatlantic air shipments of bullion to seize regional premiums. The fact that silver is now under scrutiny in the US administration's investigation into critical minerals paints a further bullish narrative: if included under potential tariffs or export restrictions, scarcity might intensify, driving the metal to record levels.
While gold and silver dominate the headlines, perhaps the most fascinating subplot is the renaissance of palladium and platinum. Long considered obsolete due to expectations of a transition away from internal combustion engines, both metals are now riding a powerful wave of reevaluation.
Much of this transformation originates from a broader rethink of energy policy. In a surprise pivot, the U.S. has embraced “energy maximalism,” an approach that allows combustion engines to remain viable alongside emerging energy-hungry technologies like artificial intelligence. As AI infrastructure is projected to require monumental amounts of energy (some visionaries like Elon Musk claim it will one day consume “all the power in the solar system”), maintaining ICEs, at least in the short-to-medium term, could alleviate near-term power grid pressure, thereby prolonging the utility of technologies that require platinum and palladium in catalytic converters. Of all the precious metals, none has experienced as sharp a shift in fortunes as palladium. Just a few years ago, prices had collapsed by more than 70% from a 2022 high near $3,400/oz. Traders and analysts declared it a relic of a fading industrial narrative. Yet 2025 has ushered in a dramatic phoenix-like resurgence.
Currently trading around $1,482, its highest since May 2023, palladium has surged nearly 50% year-to-date. Technical analysts are lighting up; the metal recently broke out of a two-year bottoming formation around the $1,290 resistance, a key psychological and structural level. More significantly, palladium triggered a rare “golden cross” on the weekly chart, a bullish pattern formed when shorter-term momentum overtakes the longer-term moving average. Historically, such signals have preceded powerful multi-year rallies.
Elliott Wave theory practitioners are equally excited. A long-term 17-year Elliott Wave structure appears to be entering its 5th and final wave, an impulse cycle that tends to deliver explosive, sentiment-fueled gains. If the technical structure holds, analysts see plausible near-term targets between $2,000 and $2,643, with a potential move to $3,000 if momentum picks up sharply.
There’s evidence that institutional investors have been quietly front-running the palladium rally. ETF inflows into the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) have been steadily positive over every timeframe, from $108 million in the last month to nearly $478 million over the past five years.
Perhaps more telling is that these inflows occurred while the broader market sentiment remained overwhelmingly negative. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that managed money, the hedge funds, and speculators still heavily net short palladium futures. This disconnect reveals a classic short-squeeze setup: as prices continue to climb, bearish traders may be forced to cover their positions rapidly, supercharging upward momentum.
Meanwhile, swap dealers like institutional banks have flipped long, and commercial hedges have remained reserved, both indicators of shifting expectations. With the top four short holders controlling more than 30% of total shorts, any wave of buying could ignite a dramatic rally in what's already a thin, volatile market.
Ongoing investigations by the U.S. government into critical minerals like palladium and platinum have added another layer of complexity and bullishness to metals markets. Should new import tariffs be enacted, particularly on metals originating from geopolitical rivals like Russia or even South Africa, the global supply chain could be constrained further in a market already suffering from scarcity.
With only 200 tonnes of palladium and platinum combined mined annually, compared to 3,200 tonnes of gold and 25,000 tonnes of silver, supply disruptions can drastically alter price trajectories. The potential imposition of tariffs, similar to what the White House is exploring amid ongoing trade spats with Beijing, would not only tighten global inventories but also fuel the risk-on sentiment now engulfing the space. Of course, no commodity rally is without its caveats. A renewed slowdown in the auto industry, still palladium’s primary demand source, or a substitution shift back toward platinum, could derail the bullish trajectory. On the macro front, spiking U.S. dollar strength or rising real yields could sap capital away from non-interest-bearing assets like metals. Nonetheless, for now, the technical factors, sentiment shifts, institutional positioning, and macro backdrop are converging in favor of precious metals bulls.
The precious metals market is undergoing a significant, broad-based repricing and not solely due to economic fears. The rethink of long-term energy policy, the potential for AI’s impact on industrial material demand, fears of geopolitical upheaval, and the evolving recognition of structural scarcity are all reshaping investor outlooks.
While gold and silver rightfully retain their crown as crisis hedges, platinum and palladium have emerged as dynamic players poised to benefit from both cyclical and secular shifts. With technical breakouts confirmed, institutional inflows accelerating, and late-stage bears still short, the conditions are in place for an extended rally and possibly a new chapter in the commodity supercycle. As the world prepares for some of the most profound technological, geopolitical, and environmental transitions in modern history, one thing has become clear: the metals that power our world, both old and new, are refusing to be left behind.