The global platinum market is poised to experience its third consecutive year of deficit in 2025, driven by constrained mine supply, weaker recycling improvements than expected, and sustained demand across key sectors. While the projected shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces is lower than 2024’s deficit of 682,000 ounces, it remains significant, continuing to erode above-ground platinum stocks.
In 2025, total platinum supply is expected to rise by 1% to 7.32 million ounces, supported by an increase in recycling. However, mine production is forecast to decline by 2% year-on-year to 5.55 million ounces due to lower outputs from South Africa (-2%) and North America (-8%). While Zimbabwe (+3%) and Russia (steady at 676,000 oz) are expected to maintain or slightly increase their outputs, they are insufficient to offset declines elsewhere.
Recycling, a key component of platinum supply, is forecast to increase by 12% to 1.77 million ounces. This growth is primarily driven by a 14% rise in autocatalyst recycling, as older vehicles are scrapped, and modest increases in jewellery and industrial recycling. However, this is lower than previously anticipated, with the 2025 recycling forecast revised downward by 278,000 ounces due to supply constraints in spent autocatalysts and jewellery recycling.
Total platinum demand is expected to see a slight decline of 1%, reaching 7.86 million ounces in 2025, after a stable year in 2024. Despite this marginal drop, the demand for platinum remains strong across various sectors.
In the automotive sector, demand is forecasted to grow by 2%, reaching 3.25 million ounces—the highest level in eight years. This increase is largely attributed to the rising sales of hybrid vehicles, stricter emissions regulations, and the ongoing trend of substituting platinum for palladium.
Jewellery demand is also anticipated to rise by 2% for the second consecutive year, driven by enhanced retail efforts in key markets such as India, North America, and China. Conversely, industrial demand is expected to decline significantly by 9%, falling to 2.22 million ounces. This notable decrease can be primarily linked to a 57% drop in demand from the glass sector, which has undergone strategic capacity expansions in China over the past few years. However, other industrial sectors are projected to perform well, with notable increases in petroleum demand (up 31%), hydrogen (up 32%), and medical applications (up 4%).
Finally, investment demand is expected to rise by 7%, reaching 420,000 ounces. This growth is driven by inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Comex exchange stocks, bolstered by rising gold prices and uncertainties related to tariffs in the U.S.
With supply still unable to fully meet demand, the 2025 platinum deficit is forecast at 539,000 ounces, leading to a further 15% decline in above-ground stocks to 3.01 million ounces—equivalent to just over four months of global demand. This reduction in available supply may create upward pressure on prices, particularly if demand from the automotive and investment sectors exceeds expectations.
Platinum prices have remained within a $900/oz to $1,100/oz range for several years, but with consistent deficits and declining stockpiles, analysts anticipate a potential breakout in the near future. The narrowing trading range suggests an impending price reaction, which, given market fundamentals, is likely to be upward.
Despite modest improvements in recycling, platinum will remain in deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025. Strong automotive and jewellery demand, combined with lower mining output and sustained investment interest, are key drivers of this ongoing supply shortfall. The depletion of above-ground stocks further reinforces the structural tightness of the market. While prices have yet to react strongly, the continued erosion of stockpiles suggests a potential bullish outlook for platinum in the near term.