The platinum market recorded a historic deficit of 1.082 million ounces in 2025, the deepest shortfall in WPIC’s data series since 2014. Total demand rose 1% year-on-year to 8.297 million ounces, while supply contracted 1% to 7.215 million ounces.
Although the 2026 deficit is forecast to narrow significantly to 240,000 ounces, the market will remain firmly in shortfall. Cumulative deficits since 2023 are now approaching three million ounces. As a result, above-ground stocks are projected to fall to just 2.6 million ounces by the end of 2026, equivalent to slightly more than four months of global demand. This depletion is critical. Above-ground stocks are essential for the smooth day-to-day functioning of commodity markets. Their drawdown was a key catalyst behind platinum’s strong price rally in 2025, and further deficits suggest continued tightness and likely volatility ahead.
The most significant shift between earlier forecasts and the current outlook has been investment demand. In 2025, total investment demand surged 65% year-on-year to 1.157 million ounces. Bar and coin demand nearly doubled to 372,000 ounces, led by China, while ETF holdings rose 7% to 3.54 million ounces. Exchange stocks also saw unusually large net inflows of 384,000 ounces, partly due to tariff concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US Section 232 investigation.
While total investment demand is projected to decline 46% in 2026 to 625,000 ounces, this does not reflect investor retreat. Rather, it assumes that the exceptional ETF inflows and exchange stock builds of 2025 will not be repeated. ETF holdings are expected to remain broadly stable, with no significant liquidation. Exchange stocks may unwind modestly, but remain elevated.
In fact, bar and coin demand is forecast to rise a further 35% to 725,000 ounces in 2026, a six-year high. China remains the epicentre of physical investment demand, supported by new distribution initiatives, including partnerships between major banks and jewellery retailers to expand access to platinum investment bars. India is also emerging as a market to watch. The psychology behind this surge is clear: investors are seeking non-currency stores of value amid geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. While gold remains the dominant safe-haven asset, platinum, alongside silver, has increasingly benefited from the broader pivot toward hard assets.
On the supply side, mine production remains constrained. After declining 4% in 2025 to 5.551 million ounces, mine supply is forecast to remain essentially flat at 5.553 million ounces in 2026. Gains in South Africa and Zimbabwe are expected to be offset by declines in North America and Russia.
Despite higher basket prices, platinum mining, dominated by deep-level underground operations, is inherently inflexible. Output cannot be rapidly increased in response to higher prices due to geological and technical constraints.
Recycling supply, however, is more price-sensitive. Recycling rose 10% in 2025 to 1.664 million ounces and is expected to increase another 10% to 1.827 million ounces in 2026. Higher prices are incentivising recovery of previously uneconomic catalytic converter materials and boosting jewellery recycling, particularly in China. Still, recycling growth alone is insufficient to eliminate the deficit.
Total demand in 2026 is forecast to decline 8% year-on-year to 7.619 million ounces, largely because the extraordinary investment inflows of 2025 are unlikely to be repeated. However, underlying sectoral demand remains broadly resilient.
Automotive demand, the largest segment, is expected to contract modestly by 3% to 2.943 million ounces. While internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production is declining, policy adjustments in Europe and the US have slowed electrification timelines. Hybrid vehicle production is projected to grow 12%, supporting continued platinum use in catalytic converters.
Industrial demand is forecast to rebound by 11% to 2.124 million ounces, led by a 92% surge in glass-sector demand and gains in chemicals and hydrogen applications. Growth in green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies reinforces platinum’s strategic industrial role.
Jewellery demand is expected to decline 12% to 1.927 million ounces, reflecting higher prices and weaker Chinese fabrication following an exceptionally strong 2025. However, platinum retains relative resilience due to its exposure to bridal and gem-set jewellery segments, which are less price-sensitive than pure gold jewellery.
With supply inelastic, above-ground stocks depleted, and investment demand elevated, platinum’s market structure points to ongoing volatility. Recent price swings, including sharp single-day corrections, underscore how sensitive the market has become to macro events and investor positioning. Yet these fluctuations occur against a backdrop of structurally tight fundamentals.
WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond also noted that exchange stocks warehoused at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) are not yet fully incorporated into supply-demand calculations. Once disclosed, they could potentially deepen the apparent deficit.
Platinum’s appeal rests on two interlinked pillars. First, its fundamentals are exceptionally strong: four consecutive deficits, cumulative supply shortfalls approaching three million ounces, structurally constrained mine output, and historically low above-ground stocks. Second, the macro-political environment remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions, trade policy volatility, and broader economic fragility are sustaining demand for hard assets across the precious metals complex.
While the 2026 deficit is smaller than 2025’s record shortfall, it perpetuates tightness rather than alleviating it. Stocks are not being replenished. Investment holdings remain sticky. Physical demand for bars and coins is accelerating. In such an environment, volatility is likely, but so is sustained strategic interest. As Sterck summarised, platinum combines the defensive characteristics of a precious metal with the structural tailwinds of industrial scarcity. For investors seeking exposure to both hard-asset protection and supply-constrained fundamentals, platinum remains, in his words, “a very good place to be positioned right now.”