In December 2025, the silver market broke away from historical norms in a dramatic and unprecedented fashion. For the first time in decades, silver decisively decoupled from its traditional correlations with gold and U.S. Treasury yields, triggering a historic price surge that propelled the metal above $64 per ounce. This represented a year-to-date gain of over 100%, its strongest annual performance since the infamous Hunt Brothers episode in 1979.
But this rally wasn’t about manipulation or momentum alone. It was driven by three powerful catalysts: a major policy shift from the Federal Reserve that weakened the U.S. dollar, a widening structural deficit in global silver supply due to accelerating industrial demand, and a “gamma squeeze” in the ETF and options markets that forced massive institutional inflows. By mid-December, every major silver-focused ETF and ETP, including SLV, SIVR, PSLV, SIL, SILJ, and AGQ, had hit new 52-week highs.
The monetary policy environment reached a pivotal point in late 2025. After years of monetary tightening that suppressed the broader precious metals market, the Federal Reserve eased its stance. The rate-cutting cycle triggered by deteriorating employment data and fragile economic indicators catalyzed capital outflows from U.S. Treasuries into inflation-sensitive assets. With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plunging to 98.27, dollar-denominated commodities gained an immediate tailwind.
Yet silver wasn’t merely responding to monetary stimuli. Its industrial demand, particularly from the solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing sector and the electrification of vehicles, reached historic highs. PV technologies like TOPCon and HJT now require more silver per watt, but supply remains inflexible. As silver is mainly extracted as a by-product of base metal mining, it lacks the supply responsiveness typically seen in more direct commodities like copper or nickel. Between 2021 and 2025, the physical shortfall in worldwide supply accumulated to nearly 700 million ounces, sharply outpacing miner contributions.
Adding a geopolitical layer, the Biden administration's "Section 232" probe into silver imports stoked fears of tariffs or quotas, prompting a race among speculators and industrial users to preemptively secure physical supply, particularly in New York vaults. The situation was further exacerbated by ongoing de-dollarization initiatives among BRICS nations, which increased central bank accumulation of precious metal reserves and siphoned liquidity from global metals exchanges.
December 2025 saw every major silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and Exchange Traded Product (ETP) hit 52-week highs, confirming the breadth and depth of the rally.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV): Peaking at $58.56 on December 12, SLV experienced a powerful gamma squeeze, aggressive call option buying forcing dealers to hedge through spot purchases, creating a feedback loop. The ETF’s implied volatility neared its historical extremes, while vault inventories surged past 495 million ounces, affirming a tight link between derivative speculation and physical demand.
Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR): Favored for its lower expense ratio (0.30%), SIVR reached $61.49, delivering a 113.49% year-to-date return. Asset flows of over $1.15 billion underscored intense accumulated interest from long-term allocators, keeping the ETF tightly pegged to NAV through efficient share creation.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV): As a closed-end trust with physical redemption options, PSLV also hit record territory at $21.41. Uniquely, PSLV traded at a 2-4% discount to its NAV, an anomaly in historical bull markets. However, this was attributed to Sprott’s aggressive At-The-Market (ATM) share issuance programs, which, while diluting short-term premiums, allowed the trust to purchase more physical bullion from the strained market.
Equity-based silver funds mirrored and amplified the bullish price action in underlying metal markets through operational leverage.
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL): The fund rocketed 173% from trough to peak ($31.32 to $85.62), outpacing the spot metal’s gain. The solid performance came amidst modest P/E ratios around 30x, supported by surging revenue estimates tied to $60+ silver pricing.
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ): Epitomizing speculative zeal, SILJ soared nearly 200% from lows, reflecting intense interest in exploratory plays and merger-and-acquisition candidates. Daily trading volumes exceeded 15 million shares, signaling maximum risk-on sentiment. While volatile, this surge marked the transition into the parabolic phase of the silver rally, where retail and institutional momentum converged.
In December 2025, there was a significant revaluation of silver as an asset class that extended beyond just pricing. Notably, silver's total investable asset value was estimated to have surpassed that of Microsoft, reaching approximately $3.59 trillion in theoretical market capitalization. This shift symbolized silver's newfound dominance in macro portfolios.
For the first time since the 1980s, silver began trading at a premium to oil, with spot prices around $64 per ounce compared to WTI crude at $57 per barrel. This inversion in the price ratio highlighted the migration of capital away from traditional fossil-based assets and towards commodities linked to electrification.
The Gold-Silver Ratio also reflected this trend, falling to 67:1 from earlier highs near 80. This shift supports a historical pattern suggesting that silver tends to lead during bull cycles. Analysts began to speculate whether silver could reach the lower ratios seen during past market manias, potentially dropping to levels as low as 30:1 or even 15:1 as mid-December approached. As a result, a bifurcated future appeared to take shape. However, there were concerns regarding a potential “blow-off top.” Technical indicators, including RSI readings exceeding 80 and parabolic price movements, raised the possibility of a correction, with analysts warning that retracements to the $45 to $55 per ounce range could occur, possibly shaking out overextended speculative positions, particularly in high-leverage funds.
Conversely, many argued that underlying fundamental physical tightness, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and ETF absorption would support silver prices in the future. The industrial demand curve, especially from the solar sector, remained inelastic in the short term, as there were no immediate alternatives or feasible adjustments capable of scaling up to meet demand.
The December 2025 silver rally is not just another commodity breakout; it’s a signal of structural transformation. With the global economy pivoting toward decarbonization, silver’s dual identity as both a monetary hedge and an irreplaceable industrial, places it in a new asset class altogether: the energy-metal hybrid.
The synchronized surge in silver-focused ETFs, SLV ($58.56), SIVR ($61.49), PSLV ($21.41), SIL ($85.62), SILJ ($28.97), and AGQ ($137.81), highlights the universality of the trend. It draws in institutional allocators, macro hedge funds, climate-conscious investors, and retail traders alike.
Whether this moment marks a cyclical high or the beginning of a long secular period will depend on macroeconomics, policy decisions, and the capacity of industrial demand to withstand elevated prices. That said, the financial world's eyes are undeniably fixed on silver, no longer the overlooked cousin of gold, but arguably the metal of the decade.