Silver prices recovered sharply on Monday, with spot bullion rebounding toward the $69 level after a violent selloff pushed the market to its weakest levels in months and left sentiment deeply fragile. The move came amid a broader cross-asset reversal, as crude oil retreated, bond yields softened, and investors responded to tentative signs of a possible de-escalation in tensions surrounding the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
After plunging to an intraday low near $61.01, its weakest level since December 2025, silver staged a strong recovery during the London and U.S. sessions. By midday, May silver futures were trading around $70.46, up roughly $0.84 on the day, having reversed a substantial portion of the earlier collapse. The rebound followed a 12%+ washout that briefly cut silver to roughly half of its late-January peak near $121 per ounce.
The recovery in precious metals tracked a sharp reversal in energy markets. Brent and crude benchmarks fell steeply at one point by nearly 8% to 10% after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had postponed planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing what he described as “in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations” with Tehran. The announcement helped calm immediate fears of an escalating energy shock, easing inflation-related pressure that had weighed heavily on metals.
Still, the geopolitical backdrop remains unstable. Iranian officials denied that any direct or indirect negotiations had taken place with Washington, and Tehran reiterated that its position on the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the conflict had not changed. That disconnect between U.S. and Iranian messaging kept volatility elevated across commodities, currencies, and global equities.
Silver’s recent weakness has not been driven solely by a stronger dollar or rising yields, but also by broader liquidity stress. As several market strategists have noted, wartime shocks, especially those tied to energy supply, can be deflationary for liquidity even while inflationary in headline terms. In that environment, investors often sell liquid assets such as gold and silver to meet margin calls or reduce broader portfolio risk.
That dynamic was evident in ETF flows. The world’s largest gold-backed funds, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), shrank further last week, with combined holdings falling to their lowest level since November. Together, the two funds have liquidated more than 66 tonnes of bullion this month, marking the largest tonnage decline since March 2021 and putting them on track for their first net monthly outflow since May 2025. Meanwhile, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has also seen holdings fall by roughly 4.7% since the conflict began, slipping to the smallest level since November. The ETF drawdowns underscore the extent to which investors have been exiting precious metals despite ongoing geopolitical risk. Rather than consistently benefiting from safe-haven demand, gold and silver have at times come under pressure as traders prioritize cash, credit preservation, and risk reduction amid violent market swings.
Monetary policy expectations also remain a key part of the silver outlook. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range, and while the central bank’s stance remains restrictive, Treasury yields eased modestly on Monday, helping silver stabilize. Even so, markets have dramatically repriced the odds of near-term rate cuts. Fed funds futures now imply only a small chance of easing before the end of 2026, a stark shift from expectations before the latest Middle East flare-up.
For silver, which is sensitive to both real rates and industrial growth expectations, the backdrop remains difficult. Lower yields provided some near-term relief on Monday. Still, the broader macro environment continues to argue against a full recovery unless inflation fears fade further and financial conditions loosen meaningfully.
From a technical standpoint, Monday’s rebound looks more like a relief rally than a decisive trend reversal. Silver remains below its 50-day simple moving average at $86.20 and its 100-day SMA near $73.80, keeping the near-term structure decisively bearish. Momentum indicators continue to reinforce that view: the daily RSI is holding near 34, below the neutral 50 threshold, while the MACD remains in negative territory, indicating that downside momentum has not yet fully dissipated.
That said, the rebound from the $61 area suggests the market may have reached at least a temporary point of exhaustion after an exceptionally steep decline. Some analysts have pointed to signs that the selling in both gold and silver had become overstretched, opening the door to a technical snapback once crude oil reversed and risk appetite improved.
Immediate resistance is now seen near the 100-day SMA around $73.80, followed by the key $78 to $80 zone, which marks a former breakdown area. A more meaningful shift in sentiment would require a sustained move above the 50-day SMA at $86.20. On the downside, support rests at Monday’s low near $61.01, followed by the rising 200-day SMA around $57.60. A break below that level could expose a deeper retracement toward the psychologically important $50 mark.
Silver’s recovery toward $69 reflects a market attempting to stabilize after a capitulation-style selloff, aided by lower oil prices, calmer yields, and hopes that geopolitical escalation may be delayed. But despite the rebound, the broader picture remains cautious.
ETF outflows, elevated rate expectations, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and damaged chart structure all suggest that the white metal has not yet emerged from its corrective phase. Unless silver can reclaim key resistance levels in the days ahead, Monday’s rally may prove to be a technically driven rebound rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
For now, silver has stepped back from the brink, but it remains highly sensitive to the next move in oil, rates, and Middle East headlines.