Ukraine’s prospects for long-term stability and renewed U.S. engagement have taken a surprising turn with the signing of a landmark economic and minerals agreement between Kyiv and Washington this week, an agreement that not only gives the U.S. a financial stake in Ukraine’s future but also signals a potential shift in President Donald Trump’s volatile policy toward the war-torn country.
The deal, signed on April 30 in Washington by Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, comes just two months after what many in Kyiv call one of the darkest days of the war since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. On February 28, a White House visit meant to win over President Trump turned into a diplomatic debacle. A shouting match between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ended with Trump ejecting his guest from the Oval Office and canceling a planned lunch.
What followed was even more alarming: Trump intensified outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, pushing a proposed peace deal laden with concessions to Moscow, including recognition of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian regions. Panic spread among Ukraine's allies, fearing the U.S. might abandon support altogether. Yet just weeks later, the situation has changed dramatically.
The new minerals deal is now seen in Kyiv as a breakthrough, economically vital and diplomatically symbolic. It establishes a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund, backed by profits from Ukraine’s critical mineral, gas, and oil reserves. The final agreement, following months of tough negotiation, removed earlier U.S. demands for Ukraine to repay previous military aid or grant American firms exclusive extraction rights.
“This is a truly equal agreement,” Zelenskyy declared in his nightly video address. “It allows for significant investment and demonstrates respect for our sovereignty.”
It also affirms Ukraine’s constitutional control over its natural resources and states clearly that the partnership must not hinder Ukraine’s European Union integration key priority for Kyiv. “Ukraine proved itself worthy of negotiations,” said Nataliia Shapoval, head of Kyiv’s KSE Institute, noting that Ukraine successfully avoided being strong-armed into a one-sided deal.
Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, called the new agreement “a win-win for both sides” and evidence that “something might be shifting” in the Trump administration’s previously antagonistic approach to Ukraine.
At the center of the new deal is Ukraine’s vast and largely untapped wealth in natural resources, particularly critical minerals essential to modern technologies. According to geological surveys and estimates from the Ukrainian government, the country possesses a remarkable 20% of Europe’s titanium reserves. Additionally, it has significant lithium deposits that could supply more than 15% of the projected European demand. Central and eastern Ukraine are rich in other valuable resources as well, including cobalt, nickel, rare earths, graphite, and copper. Furthermore, Ukraine boasts vast reserves of natural gas and oil, especially in the regions of the Black Sea and the Carpathian Basin.
To capitalize on these resources, the deal sets up a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment and development fund, which will be financed through profits from the extraction and export of these critical materials. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will receive a 25% share of future mineral revenues generated by this joint fund. American and allied firms will have prioritized, though not exclusive, access to exploration and development contracts, all governed by transparent and competitive bidding rules.
Importantly, Ukraine will retain sovereign ownership and oversight of all resource rights and reserves. Furthermore, all development activities must comply with EU environmental and legal standards, ensuring that Ukraine’s path toward European integration remains intact. A binding clause has also been included to prohibit the use of revenue from the deal for repaying past military aid or loans, which had been a significant point of contention in earlier discussions but was ultimately negotiated out successfully by Kyiv.
Analysts note that this structure provides the U.S. with meaningful long-term economic interests in Ukraine's survival and prosperity, which could lead to sustained security and diplomatic engagement. As one Western diplomat in Kyiv remarked, “This is a very different model than a resource grab. It’s a shared venture with strategic implications.”
In a parallel move seen as equally significant, the U.S. State Department approved a $50 million commercial arms export license to Ukraine, the first such deal since Trump took office and froze all military assistance. Though the sale itself is relatively modest, officials in Kyiv see it as a potential turning point.
“This marks a serious, symbolic step,” said a senior Ukrainian defense official. “It’s not the amount of arms, but the opening of the door that matters.”
The decision could lay the groundwork for future transfers of more advanced military systems that Kyiv says it urgently needs to resist Russian forces. While the Biden administration had focused on direct aid, the Trump team appears to be exploring transactional military relationships consistent with the administration’s broader shift toward making allied support contingent on financial or strategic return.
Zelenskyy’s government is now cautiously optimistic that by engaging Trump on economic terms through resource-sharing and defense-industrial cooperation, they may secure the tools to continue defending the country even as peace negotiations sputter.